The most-traded SHFE tin contract rose to around 345,000 yuan/mt before coming under significant pressure, with market trading activity gradually shifting towards the 2602 contract. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on December 22, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract showed high volatility after significant gains in previous days. The price found support at 340,000 yuan/mt in the morning but faced clear pressure near 345,000 yuan/mt. Trading interest gradually shifted to the February contract, indicating increased divergence among investors at current levels. Meanwhile, the three-month LME tin price hovered around $43,500, with overseas trading subdued ahead of the Christmas holiday, influenced by US dollar liquidity and macro sentiment.

Indonesia's refined tin exports surged MoM in November, partially easing international supply concerns but also dampening upward price momentum. Demand-side dynamics remained divergent: orders from solder enterprises saw a weak rebound as the consumer electronics sector was restrained by the Chinese New Year holiday and high tin prices, while PV module production schedules declined MoM, further reducing tin consumption. Only emerging sectors like AI servers maintained strong growth, though their limited share made it difficult to reverse the overall weakness.

From a macro perspective, the US dollar index's recent decline has paused, and market expectations for the pace of US Fed interest rate cuts have turned more cautious. Domestically, despite policy signals supporting growth, November's economic data fell short of expectations, indicating that a recovery in real demand will take time and is unlikely to provide substantial support for tin prices.

Overall, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue fluctuating within the range of 340,000–348,000 yuan/mt in the afternoon session.