The most-traded SHFE tin contract rose to around 345,000 yuan/mt before coming under significant pressure, with market trading activity gradually shifting towards the 2602 contract. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the afternoon of December 24, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract showed high volatility after significant gains in previous sessions. Early trading found support at 340,000 yuan/mt, but faced clear pressure near 345,000 yuan/mt, with market activity gradually shifting toward the February contract, indicating increased divergence among investors at current levels. Meanwhile, the three-month LME tin price fluctuated around the $43,500 mark, with overseas trading subdued ahead of the Christmas holiday, and prices more influenced by US dollar liquidity and macro sentiment.

Indonesia's refined tin exports surged MoM in November, alleviating some international supply concerns but also dampening upward price momentum. Demand-side dynamics remained divergent: the consumer electronics sector was constrained by the Chinese New Year holiday and high tin prices, leading to weak order recovery for solder enterprises, while PV module production schedules declined MoM, further reducing tin consumption. Only emerging sectors like AI servers maintained high growth rates, though their limited share makes it difficult to reverse the overall weakness.

From a macro perspective, the recent decline in the US dollar index has paused, and market expectations for the pace of US Fed interest rate cuts have turned more cautious. Domestically, despite policy signals aimed at stabilizing growth, November's economic data fell short of expectations, indicating that a recovery in real demand will take time and is unlikely to provide substantial support for tin prices.

Overall, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue fluctuating within the range of 340,000-348,000 yuan/mt in the afternoon session.